The Ibex 35 closes 2022 with cumulative losses of 5.5%, weighed down by the war in Ukraine, inflation and rising rates

Europa Press

  • In the last session of the year, the selective experienced a drop of 1.07%, settling at 8,229.1 integers

  • The evolution of the ibex in 2022 was marked by the war in Ukraine, the energy price crisis or even inflation

  • The biggest increases of the year are CaixaBank, with a revaluation of 52.11% and Banco Sabadell (+48.8%)

The ibex 35 lost 5.56% of its value in the year and the last session is over less than 8,300 integerscompared to the level of 8,700 points with which it ended last year, in a year marked by the war in Ukraine, inflation and rate hikes by central banks.

This Friday’s session did not bring the Madrid selective closer to last year’s level, since it ended with a decrease of 1.07%, standing at 8,229.1 whole numbers. Most of the index components closed today in “red”, highlighting the falls of IAG (-2.66%), Unicaja Banco (-2.55%), Naturgy (-2.37%) , Red Electrica (-2.17%) and Enagás (-1.99%). In ‘green’ only CaixaBank (+0.38%) and Fluidra (+0.28%) were located.

The evolution of selective was marked by the war in Ukraine, the energy price crisis, high inflation and by the decisions of central banks to reduce the rapid rise in prices.

Despite this decline, analyst XTB, Dario Garcia, points out that the behavior of the Ibex 35 has been “very positive” compared to the rest of the European and American markets, so that the Spanish index will close as the best stock market behind the Portuguese PSI and the British FTSE.

The analysis director of the Spanish Institute of Analysts, Alfredo Echevarriaalso agrees with García when he points out that the Ibex 35 has “clearly” beaten the two major stock market benchmarks, as it only lost 5.5%, while the Eurostoxx 50 fell by around 10% and the S&P 500 lost around 20%.

This situation is produced, according to Echevarría, by a better “macro” of the Spanish economy, with higher GDP growth and less impact of inflation, as well as a slower recovery of the Ibex 35 compared to at pre-pandemic levels than the two selective ones cited above.

In addition, the composition of the Madrid index, with a large weight in the banking and defensive sectors, contributed to a better position among investors in the face of the rise in rates and the risks that swept over the main economies of the world. .

In this context, the biggest increases of the year within the Ibex 35 were recorded by CaixaBank, with a revaluation of 52.11%, followed by Banco Sabadell (+48.8%), Respol (+42.24%), Bankinter (+38.98%) and Logista (+34.62%). On the contrary, the biggest falls of the year were accumulated by fluidra (-58.75%), Rovi (-51.13%), Cellnex (-39.58%), Grifols (-36.19) and Colonial (-27.15%).

Outlook for 2023

For Echevarría, these factors should continue to benefit the Ibex 35 during the first half of 2023, when the rise in interest rates should continue – a favorable situation for banks – and almost zero economic growth – favorable for the sectors. defensive-.

More generally, Renta 4 analysts point to certain trends and risks that could affect the markets in 2023. Thus, they believe that the tightening of the monetary policies They will be felt both in economic activity and in corporate results. Furthermore, they indicate that factors such as the war in Ukraine, tensions between China and Taiwan, more persistent than expected high inflation or Covid-19 epidemics in China which make it difficult to reopen the country should not be considered. lost.

The ‘macro’ will determine the first week of the year

Regarding the evolution of the week, the Ibex 35 lost 0.48% marked by the lack of references and by the lower trading volume due to the Christmas festivities. In this regard, García comments that the movements that have taken place in recent days have been led by individual investors “looking for profitability and positioning” before the start of the year. Moreover, it sheds light on the situation in China vis-à-vis the Covid-19, which continues to worry investors.

In raw materials, Analyst XTB points to greater market volatility due to weather forecasts and freezing conditions in the United States, which put pressure on natural gas until it fell almost 10% in the week. Other energy products like oil followed.

In today’s session, a barrel of Brent-grade oil, a benchmark for the Old Continent, stood at $84.11, up 0.77%, while Texas stood at 78, $85, up 0.59%.

The rest of the European selective closed today with falls. Specifically, London lost 0.81%, Paris 1.52%, Frankfurt 1.05% and Milan 1.45%.

Ultimately, the value of the euro against the dollar it stood at 1.0696 “greenbacks”, while the Spanish risk premium amounted to 107 basis points, with the required interest on the ten-year bond at 3.635%.

For the first week of 2023, investors are expecting a battery of macro data, including manufacturing PMIs, CPIs from major global economies, minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting and monthly jobs data. in the USA.

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